- Author
-
Brannigan, V. M.
- Title
- Performance Based Fire Safety Regulation Under Intentional Uncertainty. BFRL Fire Research Seminar. VHS Video.
- Coporate
- Maryland Univ., College Park
- Report
-
Video
August 25, 1998
- Keywords
-
fire safety
|
regulation
|
decision making
|
uncertainty
- Abstract
- Many predictive fire risk models use as inputs the results of complex human decisions. But performance based analyses interpret or express the output of these decisions as technical phenomena, as if they were physical variables in a well defined natural system. However, human decision making does not follow the same kind of well understood rules that control the physical science variables used in models. Human decisions represent intentional uncertainty, which requires a separate treatment from traditional model and data uncertainty. In particular, intentional uncertainty must be treated as a condition of a model, rather than estimated for the model. Regulating in this environment requires a careful understanding of the limitations and capabilities of both regulators and engineers. We propose that instead of trying to predict these decisions, that the modelling depend on the ability to regulate.