- Author
-
Craw, A. R.
- Title
- Analyses for Decision in the Office of Flammable Fabrics: The Level of the Standard. Status Report.
- Coporate
- National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD
- Report
-
NBSIR 73-182,
April 1973,
88 p.
- Distribution
- Available from National Technical Information Service
- Keywords
-
childrens sleepwear
|
flammable fabrics
|
standards
- Abstract
- The fundamentals of a single-stage decision problem are discussed and illustrated in the problem: The Level of the Standard for Chlidren's Sleepwear, originally discussed by M. Tribus. Outcomes are identified, and various potential measures of disutility are discussed. Given a particular alternative is in effect one must assign the conditional probabilities of arriving at each outcome. This process is aided by introducing intermediate events (extending the conversation). For the childrens' sleepwear problem this is done by considering for each of two age groups and three income levels the probability tree with branches: alternatives (a), technology (T), nightwear (N), additional cost to the consumer (c), Use (U) or non-use (u); existence of a hazard (H), exposure (E), ignition (I), burn (B) and burn-severity (Bi), survival (S) or death (D) and body image (Id). Attention is given to the preliminary assignment of each of the conditional probabilities needed. Suggestions are made as to sources of information. Much of the needed information is not available, especially that dealing with the social and behavioral aspects of the problem. The concept of exposure to an ignition hazard, for which an operational definition does not exist, is discussed.