- Author
-
Chaiken, J. M.
|
Rolph, J. E.
- Title
- Predicting the Demand for Fire Service.
- Coporate
- Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA
- Report
-
P-4625,
May 1971,
- Book or Conf
- American Statistical Association. December 1970,
Detroit, MI,
1-31 p.,
1970
- Keywords
-
fire departments
|
methodology
|
statistics
|
fire incidence
|
fire alarm systems
|
analytical studies
- Abstract
- In early 1968, The Rand Corporation began working for the City of New York on police, fire, health, and housing studies. The work we are reporting is part of an ongoing effort to help the New York City Fire Department use its resources more effectively. Fire alarm rates have tripled in the last decade, creating pressures on the department either to increase the numbers of men and equipment or to find better methods of using the available resources. To make specific recommendations about locating or dispatching fire units, estimates are needed of the distribution of incoming alarms by time, type, and geography. For example, most analytical models which could assist the dispatcher in determining which units to dispatch to the latest alarm require information about (i) the probability that the alarm represents a serious fire and (ii) the probability distribution of incoming alarms in the vicinity of the current alarm 10 or 20 minutes.