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Author
Simiu, E. | Filliben, J. J.
Title
Statistical Analysis of Extreme Winds. Final Technical Note.
Coporate
National Bureau of Standards, Washington, DC
Report
NBS TN 868, June 1975,
Distribution
Available from National Technical Information Service
Keywords
wind pressure; hurricanes; building codes; probability distribution functions; wind velocity; structural engineering; risk; statistical analysis; weather stations; meteorological data; storms; predictions; computer programs; errors
Abstract
With a view to assessing the validity of current probabilistic approaches to the definition of design wind speeds, a study was undertaken of extreme wind speeds based on records taken at 21 U.S. weather stations. For the purpose of analyzing extreme value data, a computer program was developed, which is described herein. The following results were obtained: (1) The assumption that a single probability distribution is universally applicable to all extreme wind data sets in a given type of climate was not confirmed, and (2) predictions of 100-year wind speeds based on overlapping 20-year sets of data taken at the same station differed between themselves by as much as 100%. Similar predictions for 1000-year winds differed by as much as a few hundred %. Since wind pressures are proportional to the square of the wind speeds, errors of such magnitude are unacceptably high for structural design purposes.