- Author
-
Helzer, S. G.
|
Offensend, F. L.
|
Buchbinder, B.
- Title
- Decision Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Upholstered Furniture Fire Losses. Final Report.
- Coporate
- National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD
- Sponsor
- SRI International Corp., Menlo Park, CA
- Report
-
NBS TN 1101; CIB W14/80/07 (USA),
June 1979,
155 p.
- Distribution
- Available from National Technical Information Service
- Keywords
-
building fires
|
cost benefit analysis
|
costs
|
decision analysis
|
fire losses
|
furniture
|
hazard analysis
|
probability
|
residential buildings
|
sensitivity analysis
|
smoke detectors
|
standards
|
upholstered furniture
- Abstract
- Decision analysis is used to evaluate alternative strategies for reducing residential upholstered furniture fire losses. Three alternatives are evaluated: no-action, mandatory smoke detector installation, and the proposed upholstered furniture standard under consideration by the Consumer Product Safety Commission. Quantitative models are developed to assess fire losses and costs under each alternative. The alternatives are evaluated on the basis of minimizing the total cost plus loss to society over time. Subject to the assumptions set forth in the report, the analysis shows that the detector alternative and the proposed standard are essentially equivalent and preferred to the no-action alternative. The proposed standard is more effective in saving lives, whereas the detector alternative is less costly to implement. The sensitivity of the results to key assumptions and input parameters is tested. The results are shown to be particularly sensitive to the cost of the proposed standard, the loss of life value assignment, and the upholstered furniture replacement pattern.