- Author
- Mattsson, M.
- Title
- Kostnad-Nytta av Industrins Brandskyddsatgarder. En pilotstudie av beslutsanalysens faktiska forutsattningar. [Cost-Benefit of Industrial Fire Protection. A Preliminary Study of the Feasibility of the Decision Analysis Methodology.]
- Coporate
- Lund Univ., Sweden
- Report
- LUTVDG/TVBB-3098-SE; Brandfordsk Project 101-971, 1997, 115 p.
- Keywords
- industrial fires | industrial buildings | cost benefit analysis | decision making | risk assessment | thermal damage | computer models
- Identifiers
- non-thermal damage; indirect losses
- Abstract
- ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH The aim of this report has been to investigate weather the decision analysis methodology fulfils the demands from the industrial decision-makers concerning the most cost-effective fire protection alternative. The report also contains a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate which parameters that has great importance to the validity of the model. A fictive example has been defined: Termoplast AB. A decision analysis has then been carried out with estimated inputs. These inputs have some uncertainties part of the estimation that has been done and part of reality factors. To show how these uncertainties effect the model a deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been carried out. Observe that the benefit in this report is the same as a minimisation of the risk cost consisting of insurance preminums, annual cost of fire protection and exptected values of deductibles. The decision analysis shows that the ost cost-effective alternative is sprinkler with a deductible level of 100 000 Skr. What is of more importance is that the sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated losses (both direct and indirect) and statistical basic data have great importance to the validity of the model. Further more the insurance premium and the annual cost of fire protection have no or very little importance. The second part of the report consists of a summary and an identification of problems concerning the underlying models to predict both losses and occurrence of fires. Finally a suggestion of some future research areas has been given.