- Author
- Vogt, D. K. | Russell, J. E. | Berriman, D. C. | TenBrook, W. K.
- Title
- Report on the Aircraft Accident Probability Study Using EIS Aircraft Accident Analysis Methodology for Building 332.
- Coporate
- Science Applications International Corp., Pleasanton, CA
- Report
- UCRL-CR-108423, September 1991, 19 p.
- Distribution
- Available from National Technical Information Service
- Keywords
- aircraft accidents | accident investigations | methodology | radioactive materials | statistics | nuclear reactors
- Abstract
- This report presents an initial bounding estimate of the probability of an aircraft accident involving buildings at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) which could release radioactive materials and could affect the public, the environment, or Laboratory employees outside the immediate area of Building 332. Estimates of the aircraft accident probabilities for Building 332 are determined based on current commerical, military, and general aviation statistics. The methodology used in this study is based on that developed by D. G. Eisenhut for use in the siting of nuclear reactors, as modified in the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan. Specific probabilites are developed for LLNL based on a review of commercial air carrier accidents in the U. S. from 1970 to July 1990; military data for the San Francisco Bay Area from 1970 through 1989; and general (and commuter) aviation accidents in the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Joaquin from 1970 to April 1990. The probability of a general aviation accident which results in a release of radioactive material from Building 332 was determined as a product of the probability of an accident occurring, the probability of penetration of the building, the probability that radioactive material is present in the area, and the probability that a fire occurs to release the material. Aicraft accidents involving Building 332 and commercial and military aircraft have estimated annual probabilities of 1 E-8 each. Neither are credible events. Accidents involving Building 332 and general aviation aircraft are credible events with a conservatively estimated annual probability of 2.7 E-6. However, such accidents will not credibly result in a release of radioactive material. A general aviation aircraft accident which releases radioactive material from Building 332 is conservatively estimated to have an annual probability of less than 2.4 E-8.