- Author
- Pearce, H. G. | Mullan, A. B. | Salinger, M. J. | Opperman, T. W. | Woods, D. | Moore, J. R.
- Title
- Impact of Climate Change on Long-Term Fire Danger.
- Coporate
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., Auckland, New Zealand Forest Research Ltd., Christchurch, New Zealand
- Report
- New Zealand Fire Service Commission Research Report Number 50; NIWA Client Report: AKL2005-45, May 2005, 89 p.
- Keywords
- climate | fire danger | scenarios | weather effects | fire research | fire seasons | wildland fires | mangement systems
- Identifiers
- New Zealand; downscaling New Zealand Climate Projections; updating long-term fire weather records; comparison of current and future fire dangers; climate change off sets for temperature and precipitation
- Abstract
- This research report details the findings of likely changes in fire danger under scenarios of climate change for New Zealand. Regional climate change scenarios for the 2080s to the long-term weather records were applied to 52 individual stations contained in the fire danger climatology database. Two General Circulation Models (GCMs) - CSIRO and Hadley - with contrasting spatial patterns of climate change were used to investigate the effects on fire danger. GCM model outputs were "downscaled", using a statistical technique developed for New Zealand by NIWA, to recreate daily fire weather and fire danger records. High, low, and mid-range scenarios of climate change were generated for each model. Results from this study indicate that New Zealand is likely to experience more severe fire weather and fire danger, especially in the Bay of Plenty, east of both islands and the central (Wellington/Nelson) regions.