- Author
- Lundin, J.
- Title
- Model Uncertainty in Fire Safety Engineering.
- Coporate
- Lund Univ., Sweden
- Report
- Report 1020; LUTVDG/TVBB-1020-SE, 1999, 170 p.
- Keywords
- fire safety | safety engineering | uncertainty | smoke transport | zone models | computer models | regression rate | risk analysis | quantitative analysis
- Identifiers
- model undertainty; uncertainty analysis; CFAST (Consolidated Fire growth And Smoke Transport)
- Abstract
- The objective of this licentiate dissertation was to evaluate the predictive capability of smoke transport models quantitatively, in terms of model error and the uncertainty in the model error. The result is an adjustment model that can be used to take model error into account in future model predictions, thereby increasing the predictive capability. To exemplify the evaluation procedure an analysis is presented on model predictions from multiple scenarios. The results of the analysis show that the predictive capability can be questioned for the two-zone models analysed, and the models should not be used uncritically. The analysis also shows that the model error can be quantified and taken into account, to increase the accuracy of the model predictions. If uncertainty is not taken into account it is impossible to ensure that quantitative design criteria are fulfilled, which can lead to unsafe designs or unnecessarily expensive buildings. The choice of model can have substantial effects on the result. To be able to evaluate the magnitude of the model uncertainty comparison must be made with the other types of uncertainties present in the calculations. It is possible to do this quantitatively if the statistical method presented in this dissertation is used.