- Author
-
Hall, J. R., Jr.
- Title
- Expected Changes in Fire Damages From Reducing Cigarette Ignition Propensity. Volume 5. Technical Study Group Cigarette Safety Act of 1984.
- Coporate
- National Fire Protection Assoc., Quincy, MA
Technical Study Group Cigarette Safety Act of 1984
- Report
-
Volume 5
October 1987
103 p.
- Keywords
-
cigarettes
- Identifiers
- consumer products
- Abstract
- Smoking materials, nearly all of which are cigarettes, are involved in the largest share of fire deaths in the U.S. each year. Smoking-related fire rates relative to the number of cigarettes smoked have been declining during 1980 to 1984 and are expected to continue to decline through at least 1996. The exclusive use of any of the five tested experimental cigarettes would be expected to reduce these projected losses by sizeable percentages, especially for deaths (relative to number of cigarettes consumed), where even the lowest-impact cigarette would have been expected to reduce deaths by 59% in 1986 (if a change in cigarettes had been implemented prior to that year) and would be expected to reduce deaths by 64% by 1996. Uncertainty exists at several points in these estimates. The greatest points of uncertaiuty appear to be (a) the models that forecast trends, which are based on only 3-5 years of data and therefore have wide uncertainty limits, and (b) the extension of laboratory tests on experimental cigarettes to fabrics, filling materials, cigarette contact locations, and ignited items other than those tested. Having noted the seriousness of these uncertainties, it still appears likely that cigarettes can be redesigned to produce large reductions in the smoking fire problem.