- Author
-
Johansson, H.
- Title
- Decision Making in Fire Risk Management.
- Coporate
- Lund Univ., Sweden
- Report
-
Report 1022; LUTBDG/TVBB-1022-SE
2001
93 p.
- Distribution
- AVAILABLE FROM: Lund University, Department of Fire Safety Engineering, P.O. Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden. Telephone: +46 46 222 73 60, Fax: +46 46 222 46 12, Email: [email protected]. Website: http://www.brand.lth.se/english
- Keywords
-
decision making
|
fire risk
|
risk management
|
risk analysis
|
uncertainty
|
cost benefit analysis
|
fire protection
|
sprinkler systems
- Identifiers
- Bayesian decision theory
- Abstract
- Various normative decision theories are discussed in the context of fire risk management. A method suitable for practical decision making in respect to fire safety investments is presented and exemplified. The method involves the use of second-order probabilities to represent uncertainty regarding probability values. A discussion on the use of Bayes theorem in combination with decision analysis is also included. The two case studies the thesis includes involve decisions regarding investments in water sprinkler systems for facilities belonging to the companies ABB and Avesta Sheffield, respectively. Calculations of the net present value of these investments are dealt with in the case studies.