- Author
-
Levinthal, D.
- Title
- Application of Decision Analysis to a Regulatory Problem: Fire Safety Standards for Liquid Insulated Transformers.
- Coporate
- SRI International, Menlo Park, CA
- Sponsor
- National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, MD
Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC
- Report
-
NBS GCR 80-198,
April 1980,
95 p.
- Distribution
- Available from National Technical Information Service
- Keywords
-
cost benefit analysis
|
decision making
|
fire safety
|
insulating fluids
|
flammable liquids
|
decision analysis
|
standards
|
transformers
- Abstract
- This analysis is an illustrative application of the methodology of decision analysis to the complex regulatory problem of setting fire safety standards for liquid-insulated transformers. The choice among alternative standards is difficult because of the divergence of opinion among experts, the uncertainty inherent in the evaluation of strategies for reducing accidental losses, and the difficult questions of valuing human losses. The analysis provides a preliminary structuring of the decision problem. The losses that would ensue under selected alternative safety measures are estimated by the use of a decision tree with probability assignments derived from the expert judgment of transformer manufacturers, developers of insulating fluids, researchers at insurance companies, fire engineers, and available statistical da ta. Alternative safety mreasures are evaluated in terms of their cost, the degree of property damage, and level of human losses. Despite the fire community's professed lack of knowledge concerning transformer fires, it was possible to develop a rigorous framework for making this difficult regulatory decision. Although there are significant technological uncertainities, the analysis shows that the critical factor affecting the choice of fire safety standards for liquid-insulated transformers is the level of risk tolerence.